Average draft position is a rear-view mirror. The numbers below come from
6,665 mock drafts run between August 10 and 17 — which means they describe
what drafters believed last week, not what is true today.
Camp news moves daily. ADP moves weekly. That gap is the only free edge left in
August, and it closes a little every day until kickoff. This volume is a list of
places the gap is currently widest.
We are not publishing a top 250. Everyone has one. We are publishing calls we will be held
to — and when we are wrong, the miss stays up on
Receipts like every other take we grade.
Ricky Pearsall WR · SF · ADP 110.9
Do not draft him. At any price.
Pearsall is out for the season after PCL surgery. He is still sitting at an ADP inside the top 111 because ranking sets update slower than medical news. Only 31 of the last 6,665 mocks took him, so the sharp rooms have already moved — but auto-draft and stale cheat sheets have not. If your league uses a pre-loaded board, he is a live landmine.
What to doDelete from your board. San Francisco's target share moves to Mike Evans (ADP 54.9) and Deebo Samuel (108.9).
Kyler Murray QB · MIN · ADP 138.3
Best quarterback value on the board right now.
Minnesota named Murray the Week 1 starter over J.J. McCarthy on August 11. The market has not repriced it. You are getting a starting quarterback throwing to Justin Jefferson (ADP 13.0) and Jordan Addison (100.5) in the twelfth round, behind Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield.
What to doIf you wait on QB, this is the wait. Take him two rounds before his ADP and you are still early.
George Kittle TE · SF · ADP 114.8
The Achilles is not priced in.
Kittle opened camp on PUP recovering from an Achilles injury. His ADP of 114.8 carries a standard deviation of 18.2, which is the market openly disagreeing with itself. Achilles recoveries in 30-plus tight ends are not routine, and the position replaces easily.
What to doTyler Warren (64.7) and Colston Loveland (57.9) cost more. Harold Fannin Jr. (79.1) and Tucker Kraft (104.0) cost about the same with none of the medical risk.
Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR · ADP 108.4
Buy the backfield in front of him.
Chuba Hubbard (ADP 74.4) is week-to-week with a hamstring and Brooks is starting the preseason opener. That is a 34-pick gap between two backs who may split the same workload — and the cheaper one is the one healthy right now.
What to doTake Brooks at his ADP rather than reaching for Hubbard a full three rounds earlier.
Luther Burden III WR · CHI · ADP 58.4
Fifth-round price, preseason-absent player.
Burden is missing the preseason with a groin injury. Chicago is hopeful for Week 1, which is the phrase teams use when they are not certain. A rookie receiver who misses August installs rarely opens with a full route share.
What to doRome Odunze (49.0) is the same offense, healthy, nine picks earlier. If you want Chicago exposure, that is the cleaner buy.
Jadarian Price RB · SEA · ADP 80.2
The most disagreed-upon player in the draft.
Price carries a standard deviation of 14.0 across 2,013 drafts, with a high of 3.06 and a low of 10.09. That is a seven-round spread on one rookie. Nobody knows. When the market has no consensus, the player is either free or a trap, and there is no middle.
What to doIf you are last in a snake, he will be there. If you are early, do not pay the 3rd-round price to find out.
Alec Pierce WR · IND · ADP 58.4
Ankle surgery, and the ADP hasn't blinked.
Pierce signed a $114M extension and then had ankle surgery, taking him out of camp. He is still priced at 58.4, in the same range as Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. Indianapolis also has Josh Downs (84.3) and Michael Pittman Jr. now in Pittsburgh — the target tree has moved.
What to doFade at this price. Revisit two rounds later if he practices in the final preseason week.
Isiah Pacheco RB · DET · ADP 153.9
Free lottery ticket in a top-five offense.
Pacheco is in Detroit and expected ready for Week 1 after an MCL sprain. He is going at 153.9, which is past pick 150 in a twelve-team league — the range where you are drafting kickers. Jahmyr Gibbs (1.8) is the workload, but Detroit's backfield has produced two usable backs before.
What to doLast-round flier with a genuine path to standalone value if anything happens ahead of him.